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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jordan Love | DEN | 14.8 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | SF | 10.1 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | IND | 20.8 | 21.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LAC | 17.2 | 20.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | CAR | 9.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | IND | 8.5 | 13.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | DET | 4.2 | 3.0 | BUST | HIGH |
| WR | Jameson Williams | LAR | 13.9 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Monitor: Patriots D/ST ($4.7 proj) or Steelers D/ST ($6.8 proj) as Rams D/ST streamers. Harold Fannin Jr. TE emerging if Hunter Henry matchup concerns. No urgent adds - roster positioned for playoffs.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against Auto DraftKings (4-10) with playoff positioning on the line. Our projected 120 points gives us a comfortable edge over their projected 98. Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the league's worst pass defense in Indianapolis (#1 vs WR), while Rashee Rice draws a soft Chargers secondary (#29 vs WR) with 45% TD probability per props. The main concerns are Marvin Harrison Jr.'s questionable status (heel injury - may be shut down for season) and the Rams D/ST drawing elite Detroit. Jason Myers gets a sneaky boom spot with Seattle as heavy favorites (-13.5) against the hapless Colts.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 13.9 | 14.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 14.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 11.7 | 8.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.8 | 21.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.2 | 20.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.9 | 15.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 13.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 10.8 | 5.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.3 | 6.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | 16.0 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | 10.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB | 16.1 | 16.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB | 16.7 | 12.0 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB | 2.9 | 8.0 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR | 16.8 | 12.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR | 15.7 | 16.0 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| Jake Elliott | K | K | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 3.2 | 7.0 |
| C.J. Stroud (bench) | QB | BE | 17.2 | --- |
| Courtland Sutton (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | --- |
| David Njoku (bench) | TE | BE | 4.1 | --- |
| Jakobi Meyers (bench) | WR | BE | 11.9 | --- |
| Kenneth Gainwell (bench) | RB | BE | 12.6 | --- |
| Khalil Shakir (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) | WR | BE | 14.7 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE [9-24], 23% BOOM. XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust. DEN #24 vs QB favorable, but Lambeau 22F/snow limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within [9-24].
Context: O/U: 43.5ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM unusual (small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 38% bust. HOU #22 vs QB favorable but ARI offense struggles. Using ESPN baseline. 14.0 within MODERATE range.
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE [8-20]. XGB: 11% boom, 50% bust - HIGH bust risk. ATL #6 vs RB favorable but committee concerns with White. Selecting MODERATE. 14.0 within [8-20].
Context: O/U: 44.5ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE [3-15]. XGB: 15% boom, 38% bust. SF #15 vs RB neutral. Committee limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 9.0 within [3-15].
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE [6-18], but 26% BUST [1-8]. XGB: 11% boom, 50% bust - HIGH bust risk. KC allows <100 rush yds/game. First full game back. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within [1-8].
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust - HIGH bust. Limited role in NYG offense. Selecting BUST. 5.0 within [-1-6].
Context: O/U: 47.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE [13-25], 29% BOOM. XGB: 12% boom, 24% bust. IND is #1 worst vs WR - elite matchup. SEA -13.5 heavy favorite. Selecting MODERATE due to XGB bust risk. 21.0 within [13-25].
Context: O/U: 42.5ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST [4-11], 34% MODERATE [8-20]. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. CAR offense struggles but McMillan is WR1. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within [8-20].
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE [6-18], 27% BOOM. XGB: 47% boom, 18% bust. QUESTIONABLE (heel) - missed Week 14, no practice last week. ARI eliminated - shutdown risk. If active: HOU #22 vs WR favorable. Setting 10.0 in MODERATE [6-18] pending Friday practice report.
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [17-32]. XGB: 25% boom, 33% bust. LAC #29 vs WR - elite matchup. 45% TD probability per props. Selecting BOOM. 20.0 within [17-32].
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 33% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE [10-22]. XGB: 13% boom, 48% bust - high bust risk. LAR #9 vs WR tough, but hot streak (88+ yds 4 straight). Selecting MODERATE. 15.0 within [10-22].
Context: O/U: 55.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE [3-15]. XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. CLE #21 vs WR neutral. Brutal cold (15F) limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 8.0 within [3-15].
Context: O/U: 39.5
MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE [5-14]. XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust - HIGH bust risk. CAR #9 vs TE okay matchup. Selecting MODERATE. 9.0 within [5-14].
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 26% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST [2-8]. XGB: 8% boom, 61% bust - VERY HIGH bust. BUF #32 - best TE defense in league. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within [2-8].
Context: O/U: 50.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54%
Notes: MC: 50% BUST [4-11], 34% MODERATE [8-20]. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. CAR offense struggles but McMillan is WR1. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within [8-20].
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18%
Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE [6-18], 27% BOOM. XGB: 47% boom, 18% bust. QUESTIONABLE (heel) - missed Week 14, no practice last week. ARI eliminated - shutdown risk. If active: HOU #22 vs WR favorable. Setting 10.0 in MODERATE [6-18] pending Friday practice report.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53%
Notes: MC: 47% MODERATE [6-18], but 26% BUST [1-8]. XGB: 11% boom, 50% bust - HIGH bust risk. KC allows <100 rush yds/game. First full game back. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within [1-8].
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%
Notes: MC: 73% BOOM unusual (small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 38% bust. HOU #22 vs QB favorable but ARI offense struggles. Using ESPN baseline. 14.0 within MODERATE range.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61%
Notes: MC: 48% BUST [2-8]. XGB: 8% boom, 61% bust - VERY HIGH bust. BUF #32 - best TE defense in league. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within [2-8].
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust - HIGH bust. Limited role in NYG offense. Selecting BUST. 5.0 within [-1-6].
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42%
Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE [3-15]. XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. CLE #21 vs WR neutral. Brutal cold (15F) limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 8.0 within [3-15].
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 8.9 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 31% | 46% | 23% | MEDIUM |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | WSH | 3.2 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 24% | 38% | 38% | MEDIUM |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 15.7 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 22% | 55% | 23% | MEDIUM |
| Jake Elliott | K | PHI | 8.0 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 20% | 25% | 56% | LOW |
| Sean Tucker | RB | TB | 2.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 14% | 48% | 38% | LOW |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 16.1 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 11% | 45% | 44% | LOW |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 12.0 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 16.8 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 16.7 | 12.0 | BUST | 8% | 35% | 58% | LOW |
Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 31% | Bust 23%)
Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 25% | BUST: 50%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 38%)
Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 22% | Bust 23%)
Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 20% | Bust 56%)
Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 38%)
Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 44%)
Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 58%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 36% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.3 | 34% | 14% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 32% | 16% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 29% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.5 | 21% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 20% | 9% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.8 | 20% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 19% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 9.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 16% | 58% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 20% | 35% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 19% | 56% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 43% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 42% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 32% | 16% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 29% | 26% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.5 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 21% | 31% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 10% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 36% | 35% | |
| Matthew Golden | 9.0 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% | 18% | 48% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 16% | 58% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 12% | 66% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.9 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 11% | 66% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.3 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 34% | 14% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 20% | 9% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.8 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 14% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.7 | 14% | 63% |
Win Probability
Floor: -32.4 pts | Median: +10.5 pts | Ceiling: +52.5 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 14.0 | 4.3-28.0 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 14.0 | 5.1-24.1 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.5-24.2 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 21.0 | 6.2-30.2 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 20.0 | 6.1-28.0 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.0-25.0 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.8-16.9 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 3.0 | 1.1-18.3 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 13.0 | 5.2-17.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 16.0 | 6.6-27.6 | ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.5-18.7 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.7-18.3 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 5.4-25.7 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.8-21.9 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.2-18.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 6.0 | 3.5-21.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | HIGH | 16.0 | 6.1-30.1 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 8.5-37.7 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.2-27.8 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 5.4-23.0 | ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 2.7-29.1 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.4-24.2 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.7-17.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.5-16.5 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 41% | |
| Jake Elliott | K | HIGH | 7.0 | 2.2-14.9 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HIGH | 14.3 | 5.4-25.3 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.5-23.8 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 4.8-24.6 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | HIGH | 12.9 | 5.6-22.0 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.4-21.5 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 1.8-20.4 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| David Njoku | TE | HIGH | 9.2 | 3.5-18.3 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.7 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.4 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 11.9 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 73% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 25% @ 5.8 | 17.3 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 22% @ 17.5 | 39% @ 9.2 | 40% @ 4.0 | 8.9 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.5 | 13.0 | BOOM | 46.3% | 33.4% | 20.4% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.8 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 41.5% | 40.4% | 18.1% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.2 | 20.0 | BOOM | 33.3% | 36.7% | 29.9% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 14.8 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 28.1% | 50.7% | 21.2% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 25.6% | 44.9% | 29.5% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 10.8 | 5.0 | BUST | 16.3% | 34.2% | 49.5% |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 8.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 14.4% | 43.7% | 41.9% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10.1 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 14.2% | 45.3% | 40.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 13.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 14.1% | 48.6% | 37.3% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 3.0 | BUST | 13.7% | 26.0% | 60.4% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 11.9% | 37.0% | 51.1% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.8 | 21.0 | MODERATE | 11.5% | 64.0% | 24.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 11.2% | 34.9% | 53.9% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.7 | 8.0 | BUST | 11.2% | 35.5% | 53.3% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 10.0% | 38.7% | 51.3% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.3 | 6.0 | BUST | 9.0% | 29.7% | 61.3% |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 9-5 | 1633.8 | 1645.4 | -11.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 8-6 | 1686.6 | 1445.6 | +241.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W4 | 73.8% |
| 4 | Wookie of the Year | 8-6 | 1601.3 | 1616.8 | -15.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 58.7% |
| 5 | Meat Pistols | 8-6 | 1429.7 | 1471.9 | -42.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 34.0% |
| 6 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-7 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 24.2% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-7 | 1610.5 | 1537.4 | +73.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 9.4% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-8 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-8 | 1478.5 | 1531.2 | -52.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 6-8 | 1471.5 | 1561.6 | -90.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | The Warsaw Pact | 5-9 | 1495.1 | 1646.5 | -151.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-10 | 1584.9 | 1631.2 | -46.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L3 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| Valued Customers | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Smooth Roosters |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
Monitor: Patriots D/ST ($4.7 proj) or Steelers D/ST ($6.8 proj) as Rams D/ST streamers. Harold Fannin Jr. TE emerging if Hunter Henry matchup concerns. No urgent adds - roster positioned for playoffs.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.8 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 16.7 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Sean Tucker | 2.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 3.2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.