75%

Win Probability

+22.0

Projected Margin

CI: [+2.0 to +42.0]

Boom Potential

Jason Myers

Bust Risk

Tyjae Spears (40%), Jameson Williams (51%), Bucky Irving (51%), Rams D/ST (60%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett Higher projection (16.0 vs 14.0)

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (14.0 vs 9.0)

RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (9.0 vs 8.0)

WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Rashee Rice Higher projection (21.0 vs 20.0)

WR2: Start Rashee Rice over Jameson Williams Higher projection (20.0 vs 15.0)

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Higher projection (9.0 vs 6.0)

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Higher projection (15.0 vs 12.0)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jordan Love	DEN	14.8	16.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	ATL	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Tyjae Spears	SF	10.1	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	IND	20.8	21.0	MODERATE	HIGH
WR	Rashee Rice	LAC	17.2	20.0	BOOM	HIGH
TE	Juwan Johnson	CAR	9.7	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	IND	8.5	13.0	BOOM	HIGH
D/ST	Rams D/ST	DET	4.2	3.0	BUST	HIGH
WR	Jameson Williams	LAR	13.9	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 43% boom / 21% bust

DROP Luther Burden III 14% boom / 42% bust

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust

ADD Garrett Wilson (WR) 36% boom / 35% bust

DROP Luther Burden III 14% boom / 42% bust

Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Monitor: Patriots D/ST ($4.7 proj) or Steelers D/ST ($6.8 proj) as Rams D/ST streamers. Harold Fannin Jr. TE emerging if Hunter Henry matchup concerns. No urgent adds - roster positioned for playoffs.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against Auto DraftKings (4-10) with playoff positioning on the line. Our projected 120 points gives us a comfortable edge over their projected 98. Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the league's worst pass defense in Indianapolis (#1 vs WR), while Rashee Rice draws a soft Chargers secondary (#29 vs WR) with 45% TD probability per props. The main concerns are Marvin Harrison Jr.'s questionable status (heel injury - may be shut down for season) and the Rams D/ST drawing elite Detroit. Jason Myers gets a sneaky boom spot with Seattle as heavy favorites (-13.5) against the hapless Colts.

Key Insights

JSN faces IND's #1 worst pass defense - WR1 consensus, MUST START
Rashee Rice has 45% TD probability, LAC #29 vs WR - BOOM candidate
Jordan Love in cold weather (22F, 40% snow at Lambeau) - cap expectations
MHJ QUESTIONABLE (heel) - ARI may shut him down, monitor Friday practice
Bucky Irving committee concerns: 38.5% rush share Week 14 vs 60% Week 13
Hunter Henry faces BUF #32 TE defense (best in league) - benching recommended
Rams D/ST vs DET 54.5 game total - worst possible matchup, consider streaming
Jason Myers BOOM mode per XGB (56% boom) - SEA heavy favorite
Omarion Hampton vs KC - brutal matchup, KC allows <100 rush yds/game

Matchup Status (Week 15)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	13.9	14.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	15.2	14.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	11.7	8.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	20.8	21.0
Rashee Rice	WR	WR	17.2	20.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	9.7	9.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	13.9	15.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.5	13.0
Rams D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	4.2	3.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	10.8	5.0
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	10.3	6.0
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	14.8	16.0
Luther Burden III (bench)	WR	BE	8.1	8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	BE	12.8	10.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	13.2	12.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	10.1	9.0

0.0 Actual

120.0 LLM Total

115.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Caleb Williams	QB	QB	16.1	16.0
Jonathan Taylor	RB	RB	16.7	12.0
Sean Tucker	RB	RB	2.9	8.0
A.J. Brown	WR	WR	16.8	12.0
Justin Jefferson	WR	WR	15.7	16.0
Dalton Schultz	TE	TE	8.9	10.0
Emeka Egbuka	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.0	10.0
Jake Elliott	K	K	8.0	7.0
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	3.2	7.0
C.J. Stroud (bench)	QB	BE	17.2	---
Courtland Sutton (bench)	WR	BE	13.2	---
David Njoku (bench)	TE	BE	4.1	---
Jakobi Meyers (bench)	WR	BE	11.9	---
Kenneth Gainwell (bench)	RB	BE	12.6	---
Khalil Shakir (bench)	WR	BE	10.5	---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench)	WR	BE	14.7	---

0.0 Opp Actual

98.0 Opp LLM Total

100.3 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +22.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE [9-24], 23% BOOM. XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust. DEN #24 vs QB favorable, but Lambeau 22F/snow limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within [9-24].

Context: O/U: 43.5^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM unusual (small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 38% bust. HOU #22 vs QB favorable but ARI offense struggles. Using ESPN baseline. 14.0 within MODERATE range.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE [8-20]. XGB: 11% boom, 50% bust - HIGH bust risk. ATL #6 vs RB favorable but committee concerns with White. Selecting MODERATE. 14.0 within [8-20].

Context: O/U: 44.5^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE [3-15]. XGB: 15% boom, 38% bust. SF #15 vs RB neutral. Committee limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 9.0 within [3-15].

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE [6-18], but 26% BUST [1-8]. XGB: 11% boom, 50% bust - HIGH bust risk. KC allows <100 rush yds/game. First full game back. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within [1-8].

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust - HIGH bust. Limited role in NYG offense. Selecting BUST. 5.0 within [-1-6].

Context: O/U: 47.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE [13-25], 29% BOOM. XGB: 12% boom, 24% bust. IND is #1 worst vs WR - elite matchup. SEA -13.5 heavy favorite. Selecting MODERATE due to XGB bust risk. 21.0 within [13-25].

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST [4-11], 34% MODERATE [8-20]. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. CAR offense struggles but McMillan is WR1. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within [8-20].

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE [6-18], 27% BOOM. XGB: 47% boom, 18% bust. QUESTIONABLE (heel) - missed Week 14, no practice last week. ARI eliminated - shutdown risk. If active: HOU #22 vs WR favorable. Setting 10.0 in MODERATE [6-18] pending Friday practice report.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [17-32]. XGB: 25% boom, 33% bust. LAC #29 vs WR - elite matchup. 45% TD probability per props. Selecting BOOM. 20.0 within [17-32].

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 33% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE [10-22]. XGB: 13% boom, 48% bust - high bust risk. LAR #9 vs WR tough, but hot streak (88+ yds 4 straight). Selecting MODERATE. 15.0 within [10-22].

Context: O/U: 55.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE [3-15]. XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. CLE #21 vs WR neutral. Brutal cold (15F) limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 8.0 within [3-15].

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE [5-14]. XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust - HIGH bust risk. CAR #9 vs TE okay matchup. Selecting MODERATE. 9.0 within [5-14].

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 26% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST [2-8]. XGB: 8% boom, 61% bust - VERY HIGH bust. BUF #32 - best TE defense in league. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within [2-8].

Context: O/U: 50.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST [4-11], 34% MODERATE [8-20]. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. CAR offense struggles but McMillan is WR1. Selecting MODERATE. 12.0 within [8-20].

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE [6-18], 27% BOOM. XGB: 47% boom, 18% bust. QUESTIONABLE (heel) - missed Week 14, no practice last week. ARI eliminated - shutdown risk. If active: HOU #22 vs WR favorable. Setting 10.0 in MODERATE [6-18] pending Friday practice report.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs KC

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 47% MODERATE [6-18], but 26% BUST [1-8]. XGB: 11% boom, 50% bust - HIGH bust risk. KC allows <100 rush yds/game. First full game back. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within [1-8].

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 73% BOOM unusual (small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 38% bust. HOU #22 vs QB favorable but ARI offense struggles. Using ESPN baseline. 14.0 within MODERATE range.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST [2-8]. XGB: 8% boom, 61% bust - VERY HIGH bust. BUF #32 - best TE defense in league. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within [2-8].

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST [-1-6]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust - HIGH bust. Limited role in NYG offense. Selecting BUST. 5.0 within [-1-6].

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42%

Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE [3-15]. XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. CLE #21 vs WR neutral. Brutal cold (15F) limits upside. Selecting MODERATE. 8.0 within [3-15].

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.9	10.0	MODERATE	31%	46%	23%	MEDIUM
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	WSH	3.2	7.0	MODERATE	24%	38%	38%	MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	15.7	16.0	MODERATE	22%	55%	23%	MEDIUM
Jake Elliott	K	PHI	8.0	7.0	MODERATE	20%	25%	56%	LOW
Sean Tucker	RB	TB	2.9	8.0	MODERATE	14%	48%	38%	LOW
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.1	16.0	MODERATE	11%	45%	44%	LOW
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	12.0	10.0	MODERATE	9%	36%	55%	LOW
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.8	12.0	MODERATE	9%	36%	55%	LOW
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	16.7	12.0	BUST	8%	35%	58%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 31% | Bust 23%)

Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 25% | BUST: 50%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 38%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 22% | Bust 23%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 20% | Bust 56%)

Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 38%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 44%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 58%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (6): Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,

Boom%43%

Bust%21%

EV7.4

BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)

DROP Luther Burden III WR

Boom%14%

Bust%42%

EV6.2

BOOM: 10% (18-21) MODERATE: 44% (6-10) BUST: 46% (0-3)

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%42%

Bust%20%

EV12.1

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)

ADD Garrett Wilson WR,

Boom%36%

Bust%35%

EV14.8

BUST: 38% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (10-22) BOOM: 23% (17-32)

DROP Luther Burden III WR

Boom%14%

Bust%42%

EV6.2

BOOM: 10% (18-21) MODERATE: 44% (6-10) BUST: 46% (0-3)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%34%

Bust%14%

EV8.3

BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)

ADD Isiah Pacheco RB,

Boom%32%

Bust%16%

EV8.0

BUST: 68% (1-9) MODERATE: 29% (7-19) BOOM: 3% (17-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.4	43%	21%	0.0%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.1	42%	20%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.8	36%	35%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.3	34%	14%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	32%	16%	0.0%
Trey Benson	RB	8.8	29%	26%	0.0%
Michael Badgley	K	8.6	27%	54%	0.0%
Chuba Hubbard	RB	11.5	21%	31%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.3	20%	22%	0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.5	20%	9%	0.0%
Kyler Murray	QB	16.8	20%	35%	0.0%
Aaron Rodgers	QB	14.6	19%	56%	0.0%
Matthew Golden	WR	9.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.8	18%	47%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	16%	58%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	20%	35%
Aaron Rodgers	14.6	BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22%	19%	56%
Justin Fields	16.4	BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30%	15%	43%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.1	BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13%	42%	20%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	32%	16%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24%	29%	26%
Chuba Hubbard	11.5	BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29%	21%	31%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	8.9	BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14%	10%	68%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Garrett Wilson	14.8	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23%	36%	35%
Matthew Golden	9.0	BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31%	18%	48%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	16%	58%
Rashid Shaheed	10.1	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	12%	66%
Keenan Allen	11.9	BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10%	11%	66%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.3	BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2%	34%	14%
Harold Fannin Jr.	10.5	BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16%	20%	9%
Colston Loveland	9.8	BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16%	10%	60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Michael Badgley	8.6	27%	54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.3	20%	22%
Evan McPherson	9.5	14%	68%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.4	43%	21%
Patriots D/ST	8.8	18%	47%
Dolphins D/ST	8.7	14%	63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-10 15:30

Matchup Summary

75.0%

Win Probability

+22.0

Expected Margin

120.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

98.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.6

Margin Std Dev

124.1

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -32.4 pts | Median: +10.5 pts | Ceiling: +52.5 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	HIGH	14.0	4.3-28.0	↑15+: 64% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	MED	14.0	5.1-24.1	↑15+: 43% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	8.0	3.5-24.2	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	21.0	6.2-30.2	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 4%
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	20.0	6.1-28.0	↑15+: 58% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	15.0	4.0-25.0	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 15%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.8-16.9	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 23%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	3.0	1.1-18.3	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 34%
Jason Myers	K	MED	13.0	5.2-17.0	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 9%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	16.0	6.6-27.6	↑15+: 55% \| ↓5-: 5%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	9.0	2.5-18.7	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 25%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	5.0	0.7-18.3	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 52%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	12.0	5.4-25.7	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 8%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	10.0	3.8-21.9	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 17%
Luther Burden III	WR	HIGH	8.0	1.2-18.1	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 33%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	6.0	3.5-21.9	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 25%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Caleb Williams	QB	HIGH	16.0	6.1-30.1	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jonathan Taylor	RB	HIGH	12.0	8.5-37.7	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 0%
Sean Tucker	RB	HIGH	8.0	1.2-27.8	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 37%
Justin Jefferson	WR	HIGH	16.0	5.4-23.0	↑15+: 39% \| ↓5-: 7%
A.J. Brown	WR	HIGH	12.0	2.7-29.1	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 16%
Emeka Egbuka	WR	HIGH	10.0	3.4-24.2	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 22%
Dalton Schultz	TE	HIGH	10.0	2.7-17.1	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 31%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	7.0	0.5-16.5	↑15+: 14% \| ↓5-: 41%
Jake Elliott	K	HIGH	7.0	2.2-14.9	↑15+: 10% \| ↓5-: 32%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
C.J. Stroud	QB	HIGH	14.3	5.4-25.3	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 8%
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	HIGH	10.1	1.5-23.8	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 37%
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	HIGH	12.5	4.8-24.6	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 11%
Courtland Sutton	WR	HIGH	12.9	5.6-22.0	↑15+: 35% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jakobi Meyers	WR	HIGH	12.5	5.4-21.5	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 8%
Khalil Shakir	WR	HIGH	10.8	1.8-20.4	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 26%
David Njoku	TE	HIGH	9.2	3.5-18.3	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 30%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	19% @ 24.3	65% @ 14.2	17% @ 5.0	14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	29% @ 28.7	41% @ 18.7	30% @ 7.6	18.2
Rashee Rice	WR	43% @ 24.4	26% @ 16.0	31% @ 7.4	16.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	27% @ 23.0	47% @ 11.9	26% @ 4.8	13.1
Jason Myers	K	20% @ 16.9	47% @ 11.8	33% @ 6.4	11.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	32% @ 14.9	42% @ 9.1	26% @ 3.7	9.6
Jameson Williams	WR	24% @ 24.1	47% @ 15.7	30% @ 5.4	14.6
Jacoby Brissett	QB	73% @ 21.3	2% @ 14.7	25% @ 5.8	17.3
Rams D/ST	D/ST	22% @ 17.5	39% @ 9.2	40% @ 4.0	8.9

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Jason Myers	K	8.5	13.0	BOOM	46.3%	33.4%	20.4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.8	10.0	MODERATE	41.5%	40.4%	18.1%
Rashee Rice	WR	17.2	20.0	BOOM	33.3%	36.7%	29.9%
Jordan Love	QB	14.8	16.0	MODERATE	28.1%	50.7%	21.2%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	9.0	MODERATE	25.6%	44.9%	29.5%
Devin Singletary	RB	10.8	5.0	BUST	16.3%	34.2%	49.5%
Luther Burden III	WR	8.1	8.0	MODERATE	14.4%	43.7%	41.9%
Tyjae Spears	RB	10.1	9.0	MODERATE	14.2%	45.3%	40.5%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	13.9	14.0	MODERATE	14.1%	48.6%	37.3%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	3.0	BUST	13.7%	26.0%	60.4%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	15.0	MODERATE	11.9%	37.0%	51.1%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20.8	21.0	MODERATE	11.5%	64.0%	24.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	12.0	MODERATE	11.2%	34.9%	53.9%
Omarion Hampton	RB	11.7	8.0	BUST	11.2%	35.5%	53.3%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	10.0%	38.7%	51.3%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.3	6.0	BUST	9.0%	29.7%	61.3%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-4	1744.9	1548.1	+196.8	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	9-5	1633.8	1645.4	-11.6	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	99.9%
3	Valued Customers ←	8-6	1686.6	1445.6	+241.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W4	73.8%
4	Wookie of the Year	8-6	1601.3	1616.8	-15.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	58.7%
5	Meat Pistols	8-6	1429.7	1471.9	-42.3	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	34.0%
6	Ryan's Rowdy Team	7-7	1644.8	1620.4	+24.4	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	24.2%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-7	1610.5	1537.4	+73.1	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	9.4%
8	Moms rules	6-8	1536.5	1662.1	-125.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
9	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-8	1478.5	1531.2	-52.7	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%
10	Smooth Roosters	6-8	1471.5	1561.6	-90.1	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	The Warsaw Pact	5-9	1495.1	1646.5	-151.4	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-10	1584.9	1631.2	-46.3	0.0 vs 0.0	L3	0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away Team		Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	@	Moms rules
4th and pinches	@	Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers	@	Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year	@	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols	@	Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	@	The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Waiver Wire Notes

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.4

Our Team MAE

16 players

10.9

Opponent MAE

9 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 11.2

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Error
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.8	21.0	-21.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	20.0	-20.0
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	16.0	-16.0
Opponent	WR	Justin Jefferson	15.7	16.0	-16.0
Opponent	QB	Caleb Williams	16.1	16.0	-16.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.9	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	13.0	-13.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	12.0	-12.0
Opponent	WR	A.J. Brown	16.8	12.0	-12.0
Opponent	RB	Jonathan Taylor	16.7	12.0	-12.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.8	10.0	-10.0
Opponent	WR	Emeka Egbuka	12.0	10.0	-10.0
Opponent	TE	Dalton Schultz	8.9	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.1	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	8.0	-8.0
Opponent	RB	Sean Tucker	2.9	8.0	-8.0
Opponent	K	Jake Elliott	8.0	7.0	-7.0
Opponent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	3.2	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.3	6.0	-6.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.8	5.0	-5.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	3.0	-3.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3

Our Team MAE

16 players

7.0

Opponent MAE

10 players

13.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	QB	Sam Darnold	0.0	-	22.3	+22.3
Free Agent	RB	Devin Neal	0.0	-	15.4	+15.4
Opponent	K	Brandon Aubrey	8.9	8.9	24.0	+15.1
Opponent	QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.9	20.1	6.3	-13.8
Opponent	WR	DJ Moore	9.1	11.9	0.6	-11.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.6
Opponent	D/ST	Vikings D/ST	5.2	6.3	15.0	+8.7
Opponent	RB	Nick Chubb	5.3	7.5	0.3	-7.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	12.1	8.0	14.7	+6.7
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.9	22.0	28.1	+6.1
Opponent	WR	Keon Coleman	6.7	9.2	3.6	-5.6
Opponent	TE	Dalton Kincaid	10.0	9.6	14.1	+4.5
Opponent	WR	Malik Washington	8.4	8.2	4.0	-4.2
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.3	10.0	14.0	+4.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	6.8	9.0	6.0	-3.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	10.3	8.0	11.0	+3.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	0.0	-	3.0	+3.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	7.8	-2.2
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.3
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.3
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	16.4	16.0	16.1	+0.1
Opponent	RB	Ollie Gordon II	3.2	7.8	7.7	-0.1
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	15.3	19.0	19.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.8	17.3	17.3	+0.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Ray Davis	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

$projection_accuracy_by_position.png$

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.